Updated through the trading day

Fear & Greed Index
Dumb money vs smart money

Most fear and greed gauges show one number. This sentiment index splits the market in two: dumb money (the retail crowd, built from Reddit and X) against smart money (read from how the S&P 500 trades the close versus the open). Both are ranked against their own history. The edge is the divergence between them.

Today's reading

One gauge per crowd, with the gap between them as the headline.

EXTREME FEARFEARNEUTRALGREEDEXTREME GREED025507510062
GreedRetailReddit + X social sentiment
EXTREME FEARFEARNEUTRALGREEDEXTREME GREED025507510017
Extreme FearSmart moneyS&P 500 (SMI)
Divergence-45smart − retail
Crowd leads. The retail crowd is ranked more greedy than smart money by at least 30 percentile points. In the smart-money versus dumb-money framework that is the distribution side: the loud crowd is positioned ahead of the quiet money. It describes the current gap, not a forecast.

The gap between the two over recent weeks (smart percentile minus retail). Near zero means they agree; at ±30 points or beyond, one side clearly leads.

NowCrowd leads
-45
1 week agoBalanced
-20
2 weeks agoBalanced
-18
3 weeks agoBalanced
-20
Over time

Both crowds, ranked over time

Retail and smart money as percentile ranks against their own history, with the S&P 500 price for context. The shading flags the days when the gap is stretched: green when smart money leads, red when the crowd leads, faint when balanced. Hover any day.

Smart money · S&P 500 (SMI) Retail · social sentiment Smart money leads Crowd leads Price
Detail statistics

The numbers behind the gauge

How far the two crowds have pulled apart against their own history since March 2026, plus what fed each score today.

-45
Divergence (smart − retail)
Crowd leads
62 / 17
Retail / smart percentile
rank vs own history
±30
One-sigma band
typical gap -17 pts
17
Days crowd stretched ahead
of 54 (beyond 1σ)
2
Days smart money ahead
of 54 (beyond 1σ)
May 11, 2026
Most stretched day
-76 pts
What's underneath the two scores today
Retail · social sentiment
Reddit65% · high for it
X / Twitter78% · low for it
Smart money · S&P 500 (SMI)
Smart Money Index, 10-day17th pct · low for it
DayRetailSmart moneyDivergenceSignal
Jun 3062 Greed17 Extreme Fear-45Crowd
Jun 2958 Greed17 Extreme Fear-41Crowd
Jun 2620 Extreme Fear43 Fear+23Balanced
Jun 2524 Extreme Fear78 Extreme Greed+54Smart
Jun 2454 Neutral10 Extreme Fear-44Crowd
Jun 2329 Fear9 Extreme Fear-20Balanced
Jun 2226 Fear19 Extreme Fear-7Balanced
Jun 1824 Extreme Fear35 Fear+11Balanced
Methodology

How the two crowds are built

One score for the retail crowd, one for smart money. Each is ranked as a percentile against its own history (near 0 = calmer than it has been, near 100 = greedier). The headline is the gap between them: a wide gap flags which side leads.

Retail · dumb money

The retail score is built only from Reddit and X social sentiment across the most-discussed tickers, the two venues where the retail crowd talks. It leaves out news and prediction markets, which move on different drivers. It tracks what the crowd feels in real time.

Smart money · Smart Money Index

The smart-money score is the Smart Money Index on the S&P 500: the last-hour move (institutions trade the close) minus the first-thirty-minute move (retail reacts to overnight news), taken as a ten-day lean and ranked as a percentile against its own history. It settles after each close.

Reading the divergence

Smart money leads (positive gap)

Smart money sits more greedy than the crowd. The accumulation side: quiet money leaning in while the crowd hangs back.

Crowd leads (negative gap)

The crowd sits more greedy than smart money. The distribution side: the crowd leaning in while quiet money steps back.

FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

Everything you need to know about the retail-versus-smart-money Fear & Greed Index.

What is the Adanos Fear & Greed Index?

It is a market sentiment indicator that splits the crowd in two and scores each side from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). One score tracks the retail crowd, the other tracks smart money. The signal worth watching is the divergence between them, not either number on its own.

Is this a fear and greed index or a sentiment index?

Both. It is a stock market sentiment index shown in the familiar fear-to-greed format. The difference from the classic Fear & Greed Index is that it does not roll everything into one number: it splits sentiment into dumb money (the retail crowd) versus smart money, so you can watch the two sides diverge.

What is the difference between retail and smart money here?

Retail (sometimes called dumb money) is the loud, surface-level crowd: what people are saying on Reddit and X. Smart money is where capital actually moves, read from how the S&P 500 trades through the day. The two often disagree. That gap is what the index tracks.

How is the retail score calculated?

It starts from Reddit and X bullish share across the most-discussed tickers. Each source is ranked as a percentile against its own history, then the two are averaged, so a low reading means calmer than the crowd has usually been and a high reading means greedier. It does not use news or prediction markets.

How is the smart money score calculated?

It is the Smart Money Index on the S&P 500: how the index trades in the last hour (when institutions are active) minus the first thirty minutes (when retail reacts to overnight news), taken as a ten-day lean and ranked as a percentile against its own history. A high reading means money has been working into the close; a low reading means it has been selling into it.

How do I read the divergence?

The index calls a side only when the gap is wider than one standard deviation, with the two ranked clearly apart. A positive gap means smart money is ranked more greedy than the crowd (the accumulation side); a negative gap means the crowd is ranked more greedy than smart money (the distribution side). It describes the current gap, not a forecast.

Why is it often "balanced"?

Because each side is ranked against its own history and the gap is only highlighted beyond one standard deviation, most days sit in the normal range. That is intended: it surfaces the wider gaps in this short sample rather than every daily wiggle.

Is the signal backtested?

Not yet in a way we would publish. The index only began in March 2026, so the history is still short, too short for a credible divergence backtest. We treat the index as descriptive for now and let the track record build as history accrues, rather than claim a predictive edge we cannot support.

Is greed bad and fear good?

On this index they are best read as contrarian cues at the extremes. In the smart-versus-dumb-money framework, extreme retail greed with smart money ranked low is the cautionary case; extreme retail fear with smart money ranked high is the opportune one. The middle of the range carries little signal.

How often is the index updated?

The retail side refreshes several times a day as new social data arrives. The smart-money side compares the last hour to the first thirty minutes, so it needs the full session and only settles after the close while the retail side keeps moving through the day.

Is the index market-wide or per stock?

This page shows the market-wide composite, aggregated across the most-discussed tickers. The same retail-versus-smart-money method can be applied to a single stock using the per-stock sentiment and price data behind the index.

Can I use this for trading decisions?

It is for informational purposes only and is one signal among many. It reflects social discussion and how the market trades, not fundamentals or guaranteed outcomes. Past divergence is not indicative of future performance. Always do your own research.

Can I get this data through an API?

Yes. The retail side is available through the Adanos Reddit and X sentiment APIs. Those feeds are the data we sell; the smart-money side is computed from public S&P 500 price data.

Enterprise
Want the retail sentiment data behind this index?

The retail side of this index runs on our Reddit and X sentiment APIs. That market data is what we offer: bullish and bearish share, mentions and trend history, market-wide or per ticker. The smart-money side is computed in-house from public S&P 500 prices.

View Pricing