Most fear and greed gauges show one number. This sentiment index splits the market in two: dumb money (the retail crowd, built from Reddit and X) against smart money (read from how the S&P 500 trades the close versus the open). Both are ranked against their own history. The edge is the divergence between them.
One gauge per crowd, with the gap between them as the headline.
The gap between the two over recent weeks (smart percentile minus retail). Near zero means they agree; at ±30 points or beyond, one side clearly leads.
Retail and smart money as percentile ranks against their own history, with the S&P 500 price for context. The shading flags the days when the gap is stretched: green when smart money leads, red when the crowd leads, faint when balanced. Hover any day.
How far the two crowds have pulled apart against their own history since March 2026, plus what fed each score today.
| Day | Retail | Smart money | Divergence | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30 | 62 Greed | 17 Extreme Fear | -45 | Crowd |
| Jun 29 | 58 Greed | 17 Extreme Fear | -41 | Crowd |
| Jun 26 | 20 Extreme Fear | 43 Fear | +23 | Balanced |
| Jun 25 | 24 Extreme Fear | 78 Extreme Greed | +54 | Smart |
| Jun 24 | 54 Neutral | 10 Extreme Fear | -44 | Crowd |
| Jun 23 | 29 Fear | 9 Extreme Fear | -20 | Balanced |
| Jun 22 | 26 Fear | 19 Extreme Fear | -7 | Balanced |
| Jun 18 | 24 Extreme Fear | 35 Fear | +11 | Balanced |
One score for the retail crowd, one for smart money. Each is ranked as a percentile against its own history (near 0 = calmer than it has been, near 100 = greedier). The headline is the gap between them: a wide gap flags which side leads.
The retail score is built only from Reddit and X social sentiment across the most-discussed tickers, the two venues where the retail crowd talks. It leaves out news and prediction markets, which move on different drivers. It tracks what the crowd feels in real time.
The smart-money score is the Smart Money Index on the S&P 500: the last-hour move (institutions trade the close) minus the first-thirty-minute move (retail reacts to overnight news), taken as a ten-day lean and ranked as a percentile against its own history. It settles after each close.
Smart money sits more greedy than the crowd. The accumulation side: quiet money leaning in while the crowd hangs back.
The crowd sits more greedy than smart money. The distribution side: the crowd leaning in while quiet money steps back.
Everything you need to know about the retail-versus-smart-money Fear & Greed Index.
It is a market sentiment indicator that splits the crowd in two and scores each side from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). One score tracks the retail crowd, the other tracks smart money. The signal worth watching is the divergence between them, not either number on its own.
Both. It is a stock market sentiment index shown in the familiar fear-to-greed format. The difference from the classic Fear & Greed Index is that it does not roll everything into one number: it splits sentiment into dumb money (the retail crowd) versus smart money, so you can watch the two sides diverge.
Retail (sometimes called dumb money) is the loud, surface-level crowd: what people are saying on Reddit and X. Smart money is where capital actually moves, read from how the S&P 500 trades through the day. The two often disagree. That gap is what the index tracks.
It starts from Reddit and X bullish share across the most-discussed tickers. Each source is ranked as a percentile against its own history, then the two are averaged, so a low reading means calmer than the crowd has usually been and a high reading means greedier. It does not use news or prediction markets.
It is the Smart Money Index on the S&P 500: how the index trades in the last hour (when institutions are active) minus the first thirty minutes (when retail reacts to overnight news), taken as a ten-day lean and ranked as a percentile against its own history. A high reading means money has been working into the close; a low reading means it has been selling into it.
The index calls a side only when the gap is wider than one standard deviation, with the two ranked clearly apart. A positive gap means smart money is ranked more greedy than the crowd (the accumulation side); a negative gap means the crowd is ranked more greedy than smart money (the distribution side). It describes the current gap, not a forecast.
Because each side is ranked against its own history and the gap is only highlighted beyond one standard deviation, most days sit in the normal range. That is intended: it surfaces the wider gaps in this short sample rather than every daily wiggle.
Not yet in a way we would publish. The index only began in March 2026, so the history is still short, too short for a credible divergence backtest. We treat the index as descriptive for now and let the track record build as history accrues, rather than claim a predictive edge we cannot support.
On this index they are best read as contrarian cues at the extremes. In the smart-versus-dumb-money framework, extreme retail greed with smart money ranked low is the cautionary case; extreme retail fear with smart money ranked high is the opportune one. The middle of the range carries little signal.
The retail side refreshes several times a day as new social data arrives. The smart-money side compares the last hour to the first thirty minutes, so it needs the full session and only settles after the close while the retail side keeps moving through the day.
This page shows the market-wide composite, aggregated across the most-discussed tickers. The same retail-versus-smart-money method can be applied to a single stock using the per-stock sentiment and price data behind the index.
It is for informational purposes only and is one signal among many. It reflects social discussion and how the market trades, not fundamentals or guaranteed outcomes. Past divergence is not indicative of future performance. Always do your own research.
Yes. The retail side is available through the Adanos Reddit and X sentiment APIs. Those feeds are the data we sell; the smart-money side is computed from public S&P 500 price data.
The retail side of this index runs on our Reddit and X sentiment APIs. That market data is what we offer: bullish and bearish share, mentions and trend history, market-wide or per ticker. The smart-money side is computed in-house from public S&P 500 prices.