AAII vs CNN Fear & Greed vs Adanos: investor sentiment indicators compared
The AAII survey asks individual investors, the CNN index reads market data and the Adanos index scores retail posts against that market data. This comparison covers what the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, the CNN Fear & Greed Index and the Adanos Fear & Greed Index each measure, how often they update and which question each one is built to answer.
The short version
- Want to know what individual investors expect: AAII, one weekly number since 1987, with a documented contrarian record at the extremes
- Want to know what the market is doing: CNN Fear & Greed, seven market indicators, recalculated as data arrives
- Want to know whether the crowd and the market disagree: Adanos, retail posts ranked against their own history, next to the CNN index, through the trading day
- None of them: tells you what retail holds or forecasts the next month
AAII: what individual investors say they expect
The American Association of Individual Investors has asked its members the same question every week since July 1987: do you feel the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be up (bullish), no change (neutral) or down (bearish)? Members vote once a week, from Thursday 12:01 a.m. through Wednesday 11:59 p.m. Eastern. The result publishes on Thursday morning as three shares that sum to 100.
The long-run averages are the reference point: 37.5 percent bullish, 31.0 percent neutral and 31.5 percent bearish. The bull-bear spread, bullish minus bearish, averages roughly six points. In the week ending September 9, 2026 the survey read 38.0 percent bullish, 22.7 percent neutral and 39.3 percent bearish, a spread of minus 1.3 points, which sits close to the long-run picture with a thinner neutral camp.
Why people watch it as a contrarian signal
The survey's reputation rests on its extremes. A 2004 AAII Journal study by Wayne Thorp looked at what the S&P 500 did in the 52 weeks after unusual readings. When bullish sentiment sat more than two standard deviations above its mean, at the time above 61.4 percent, the index fell 5.5 percent on average over the following year. When bearish sentiment was more than two standard deviations above its mean, above 46.3 percent, the index gained 18.0 percent on average. The middle of the range showed no such pattern. Its value sits at the extremes rather than in week-to-week moves.
What it cannot tell you
It is a poll of AAII members, a self-selected group of engaged individual investors, so it measures that population rather than retail as a whole. It records a six-month expectation rather than positioning. It publishes once a week, so the number ages until the next Thursday.
CNN Fear & Greed: what the market is doing
The CNN index is built from market data alone: seven indicators combined into a reading of what emotion is driving the market now. Each indicator is measured as how far it has moved from its own recent average, compared with how much it usually moves. The seven are weighted equally into a score from 0 to 100, with 0 as maximum fear and 100 as maximum greed.
The inputs are market momentum (the S&P 500 against its 125-day average), stock price strength (net new 52-week highs and lows on the NYSE), stock price breadth (the McClellan Volume Summation Index), the five-day put/call ratio, market volatility (the VIX against its 50-day average), safe haven demand (20-day stock returns minus Treasury returns) and junk bond demand (the junk-to-investment-grade yield spread). How the Adanos index is built walks through each of the seven.
CNN recalculates each component and the index as soon as new data becomes available, so it moves through the trading day and is the most current of the three. Every input is a price, a yield, a volume or a ratio. It reflects what all participants have done, institutions included, which is why the Adanos index borrows it as the smart money side.
What it cannot tell you
It cannot separate who is doing the buying. A reading of 70 says the market is positioned greedily, not whether retail or institutions got it there. And because it is built from momentum and breadth, it tends to confirm a move that is already under way rather than anticipate one.
Adanos: what retail posts, held against the tape
The Adanos Fear & Greed Index is the youngest of the three. Instead of asking retail investors what they expect, it scores what they write every day on Reddit and X, the two venues where retail talks about stocks in public. Each source's daily bullish share is ranked as a percentile against that source's own history since March 2026. The average of the two percentiles is the retail score, the dumb money side of the dial.
The smart money side is the CNN Fear & Greed Index, used unchanged. The headline is the gap between the two. When the CNN index sits well above the retail crowd, smart money leads. When the crowd is ranked well above the market, the crowd leads. Inside a band derived from recent history the reading is balanced, which is most days. The full methodology lists every rule.
Posts arrive all day, so the retail score updates through the session instead of once a week. The headline number is retail measured against the market rather than retail on its own. The August 2026 Dow record is the worked example: the crowd and the tape pulled apart around the worst day since April 2025.
What it cannot tell you
It covers only the retail investors who post and records what they say rather than what they hold. Its history starts in March 2026, so there is no contrarian track record yet. The page makes no forecast and most days read balanced.
The three indicators compared
| AAII Sentiment Survey | CNN Fear & Greed Index | Adanos Fear & Greed Index | |
|---|---|---|---|
| What it measures | What members expect over six months | How the market is positioned | What retail posts, against how the market is positioned |
| Population | AAII members, one vote each | Every market participant, through prices | Reddit and X posters, plus the CNN index |
| Cadence | Weekly, published Thursday | Recalculated as data arrives | Through the trading day, at least every three hours |
| History | Since July 1987 | Multi-year, published by CNN | Since March 2026 |
| Output | Bullish, neutral, bearish shares | One 0 to 100 score | Two 0 to 100 scores and their gap |
| Contrarian record | Documented at two-sigma extremes | Widely used, not a published study by CNN | None yet, history too short |
| Cost | Free results on aaii.com | Free on cnn.com | Free page; retail data via API with a free tier |
Which one for which question
Unusual optimism or pessimism among individual investors: AAII, read against its 37.5 / 31.0 / 31.5 averages. It is the only one of the three with a record long enough to show what unusual has meant historically.
Fear or greed in market positioning today: CNN. It updates through the day and does not depend on who answered a poll this week.
Retail and the market pointing different ways: Adanos. Reading AAII next to CNN answers the same question weekly and by hand. The Adanos page does it daily on one scale and flags when the gap is stretched.
A trading signal on its own: none of the three. The AAII extremes have a track record, the CNN index confirms what momentum already shows and the Adanos gap describes the present without forecasting.
FAQ
What is the best retail investor sentiment indicator?
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is the longest-running direct measure of what individual investors expect, weekly since 1987. The CNN Fear & Greed Index reads sentiment from seven market indicators rather than from people. The Adanos Fear & Greed Index reads retail mood from Reddit and X posts and sets it against the CNN index, so it is the one to use when the question is whether the crowd and the market disagree.
How does the AAII survey work?
AAII members answer one question each week: do you feel the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be up, no change or down. Voting runs from Thursday to Wednesday and the results publish on Thursday morning as the bullish, neutral and bearish shares. The historical averages are 37.5 percent bullish, 31.0 percent neutral and 31.5 percent bearish.
Is the CNN Fear & Greed Index a retail sentiment indicator?
Not directly. It is built from seven market-structure indicators such as S&P 500 momentum, the VIX, the put/call ratio and the junk bond spread, weighted equally on a 0 to 100 scale. It measures how the market is trading, which reflects everyone's positioning, not what retail investors say they expect.
How is the Adanos index different from the AAII survey?
AAII asks members what they expect and publishes one number a week. Adanos scores what retail investors post on Reddit and X, every day, ranks each source against its own history and shows the result next to the CNN index. It is a measure of expressed mood rather than a poll. It updates through the trading day.
Are sentiment indicators contrarian signals?
At the extremes, historically yes for the AAII survey. An AAII Journal study found that when bullish sentiment was more than two standard deviations above its mean, the S&P 500 fell on average over the following 52 weeks. When bearish sentiment was similarly extreme, it rose. The middle of the range carries little signal. The Adanos index is too young to make any such claim.
Can I get these indicators through an API?
AAII publishes weekly results on its website. CNN publishes its index on its markets page. The retail side of the Adanos index, Reddit and X market-wide sentiment, is available through the Adanos sentiment APIs with a free tier.
Sources
Publisher methodology pages and the study quoted in the AAII section:
- AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: question wording, voting window, historical averages and the week ending September 9, 2026.
- Thorp, W. (2004): Investor Sentiment as a Contrarian Indicator. AAII Journal. The two-standard-deviation thresholds and 52-week S&P 500 returns quoted above.
- CNN Business, Fear & Greed Index: the seven indicators, their measurement, the equal weighting and the update rule.
- Adanos: How the Fear & Greed Index is built. The retail scoring, percentiles, calendar and divergence band.